During a meeting in Moscow back in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Russia “will fight for [at least] five years” in Ukraine, sources have revealed, writes asia.nikkei.com.

“This was apparently Putin"s way of summarizing a situation that at the time was not favorable to Russia and assuring Xi that Russia would emerge victorious in the end.

The likely implication was that a protracted war would favor China’s well-armed partner. Taken another way, the remark was also a warning to Xi not to change his pro-Russia stance. The trip was Xi’s first to Russia after Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It was also the first time Xi visited a leading nation after China lifted its strict zero-COIVD policy.

Whether Xi was convinced, Putin’s remark at the summit holds the key to understanding a series of mysterious developments in Russia-China relations, from a Chinese peace mission to Europe in May to China sacking its foreign minister months later.

Recently, The New York Times reported that since at least September Putin has been using intermediaries to signal that he is open to a cease-fire on condition that Russia can keep the territories it now occupies.

But given Putin’s words to Xi in March, revealed by multiple sources familiar with diplomatic maneuvering between China and Russia, the Russian leader’s reported intentions for a cease-fire should not be taken at face value.

It could be that Putin wishes to merely create the illusion that he is moving toward a cease-fire or even peace ahead of Russia’s presidential election in March, believing such an atmosphere would favor him at the polls. Meanwhile, Xi’s China has revisited its strategy, partly based on Putin’s “five years” remark in March.

If the war between Russia and Ukraine grows more prolonged, it would significantly impact plans and ambitions Xi has for his unprecedented third term as China’s president and Chinese Communist Party general secretary. Xi’s big goal of unifying Taiwan with mainland China could also be affected”, - writes the author.