The US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War says that the drone attack on the Kremlin was “likely staged” by Russia and that “several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged”.

Russia blamed the attack on Ukraine, an assertion Zelenskiy was quick to deny. The ISW says that among the indicators are that:

Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself, and it is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera.

The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment.